Talent Market Predictions
We segment the Indian Talent Market into 5 different sub- markets – Services, Captives, FAANG, Product/SAAS, E-Commerce/Fintech
Services
Dec 22 ended with the Big 4- HCL, TCS, Wipro & Infosys recording a net addition of 1,940 employees.-the lowest in 11 Quarters. Variable pay will be reduced drastically & we expect middle management to bear the brunt of layoffs- by Q2 2023.
Captives
The captive talent market will sustain itself – not so much because existing captives will expand but new entrants will create opportunities.
Banking Captives are under stress-. We already have layoffs at Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs -others will definitely follow. Some of them are also seriously bloated.
Product & SAAS
Freshworks, Salesforce, Microsoft are already correcting; – Oracle, SAP , Adobe & others will follow by Q1
FAANG
Facebook & Amazon ( especially the devices team) have already announced layoffs. Apple will grow the India team as it hedges its production capacity. Google – would plateau in India.
FINTECH & E-COMMERCE
- Till December 2022- there were 20,000 official Layoffs.Most of them- EdTech
- Edtech- has been put into jeopardy by a greed of a few. A Sales + Collection driven big whale with low governance & values runs the risk of taking a lot of genuine players down with it. It is like watching a train wreck in slow motion
- Fintech – VC’s are asking firms to create a runway for 18-24 months. M&A Activity will heat up by Q2 and lay-offs will follow
- Food Delivery & Mobility companies will be forced to consolidate & correct. The only reason they will sustain in India is because we have the largest unemployed worker base to be exploited via “gigs”
Industry trends
Focus on Productivity
- IT Services revenue per person has been static since 2016, – In 2021 Revenue per person ( USD) was- TCS- 43,409, Wipro 42,775 , Infosys- 51,908 ; Compared to – Accenture 71,126 it gives the magnitude of the problem. You can read more here.
- The captive leadership team which makes productivity their favorite puzzle – will have a 6 month head start on others
Work Models
- 2023 will answer the question whether the industry went for remote / hybrid just to control attrition or did they actually have a plan to make it work
- Our analysis on
Compensation
- Salary increases will be tepid.- average at – Inflation + 2 to 5%
- Crazy salary jumps in Startups have ended
- Performance Management stages a comeback
Hot Skills for 2023
Compensation Premium based on Skills / Expertise will continue for
- Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning
- Data Science & Analytics
- Product Engineering
- Cloud Engineering
- Computer Vision
- Semiconductor – the entire value chain